科创中国

研究导致世界遗产"濒危"的威胁因素能够为我国世界遗产管理与保护提供重要借鉴.对全球濒危世界遗产威胁因素定量统计发现:武装冲突、管理不力、工程建设是世界文化遗产与世界自然遗产共同面临的三大威胁;世界文化遗产的主要濒危因素还包括城市发展压力、不合适的维修/重建等;世界自然遗产濒危因素则还包括非法偷猎、捕捞,以及林业采伐、农业种植、放牧等农林生产活动等.中国世界遗产面临的首要威胁因素是旅游发展压力,管理问题、城市发展压力、水利工程建设等也较为突出.提出中国世界遗产保护建议:明确遗产旅游价值取向,加强高峰期游客管理,控制旅游设施建设规模;提升管理水平与管理能力,探索世界遗产管理的新体系、新思路;妥善处理好城市发展对世界文化遗产的保护压力,积极预防极端自然灾害的破坏;严格控制世界自然遗产地内的道路建设、水利工程建设等.

The?conservation?behavior?framework?is?useful?to?identify?key?linkages?between?behavior?and?conservation?practice.?We?apply?this?framework?to?a?novel?host-parasite?system?on?the?Galapagos?Islands?and?ask?if?there?have?been?changes?in?parasite?oviposition?behavior?and?host?mortality?patterns?across?the?first?decade?(2004-2013)?of?its?known?association.?The?Dipteran?parasite?Philornis?downsi?was?first?discovered?in?Darwin's?finch?nests?in?1997?and?is?the?biggest?threat?to?the?survival?of?Galapagos?land?birds.?Host?mortality?has?increased?over?the?past?decade.?In?Dipterans,?pupation?and?pupae?size?are?determined?by?access?to?host?resources.?Here,?we?test?the?hypothesis?that?P?downsi?flies?are?laying?eggs?in?finch?nests?earlier?in?the?nestling?phase?to?maximize?larval?feeding?time?and?therefore?chance?of?pupation?success?before?host?death.?The?results?show?fewer?1st?instar?larvae?later?in?the?host?nesting?cycle?in?support?of?earlier?egg?laying?behavior?by?female?flies.?Between?2004?and?2013,?parasite?intensity?increased?from?-28?to?-48?parasites?per?nest,?host?mortality?increased?from?-50%?to?-90%,?and?host?age?at?death?decreased?from?-11?to?-5?days.?The?earlier?age?at?host?death?was?correlated?with?fewer?pupae?(from?-50%?to?-20%)?and?smaller?pupae?size?(-10%?decrease).?Changes?in?parasite?behavior?reveal?new?fitness?costs?to?both?the?parasite?and?Darwin's?finches.?These?findings?un-?derscore?the?need?for?urgent?conservation?action?to?save?Darwin's?finches?from?extinction?due?to?a?novel,?lethal?and?introduced?parasite?[Current?Zoology?60?(4):?542-550,?2014].

将云推理技术引入信息融合领域,提出一种新的基于MIN-MAX云重心推理的威胁评估方法.按照实际应用背景下目标的特点,构建分层式威胁评估属性集合;定义云群、云族、云三层隶属关系,对各属性进行云模型转换,并根据各属性的云模型设计前件云发生器;依据专家经验,构建推理规则库,并设计MIN-MAX云重心推理算法,将归一化属性值输入相应的前件云发生器,生成属性云滴,通过由下而上地逐级推理,得到威胁度云滴;最后,将经过多次重复推理得到的威胁度云滴输入逆向云发生器,输出值作为最终的威胁程度.以联合防空作战为背景,仿真实现了空中目标的威胁评估,验证了该方法的有效性.

在面向目标跟踪的传感器管理问题中,以信息增量作为优化指标的方法未考虑到不同类型目标的影响程度.实际应用中,不同威胁程度的目标应给予不同程度的关注,从而分配不同的传感器资源,因此提出一种目标威胁估计与传感器管理联合方法.利用人工势场法计算各目标的威胁指数,根据目标的威胁指数及其信息增量来构造新的传感器管理目标函数,在概率假设密度滤波(PHDF)算法框架下,通过使得目标函数最大来实现传感器资源的优化分配.仿真结果表明,与仅考虑信息增量最大化的方法相比,该方法能更合理地分配传感器资源.

Because antipredator behaviours are costly, the threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis predicts that individual animals should express predator-avoidance behaviour proportionally to the perceived threat posed by the predator. Here, we experimentally tested this hypothesis by providing wild passerine birds supplemental food (on a raised feeding platform) at either 1 or 4 m from the edge of forest cover (potential refuge), in either the presence or absence of a nearby simulated predation threat (a sharp-shinned hawk Accipiter striatus model). Compared with the control treatment, we observed proportionally fewer bird visits to the food patch, and the birds took longer to re-emerge from forest refuge and return to feed at the food patch, after the hawk presentation than before it. The observed threat-sensitive latency-to-return response was stronger when the food patch was further away from the nearest refuge. Overall, our results are consistent with the predictions of the threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis in that wild passerine birds (primarily black-capped chickadees Poecile atricapillus) exhibited more intense antipre- dator behavioural responses with increasing level of apparent threat. The birds were thus sensitive to their local perceived threat of predation and traded-off safety from predation (by refuging) and foraging gains in open habitat in a graded, threat-sensitive manner [Current Zoology 60 (6): 719-728, 2014].

介绍了影响耐磨铸铁使用寿命的主要因素,即输送的介质特性、现场运行条件、耐磨铸铁用材料性能以及耐磨铸铁部件的结构及水力设计几何参数.利用灰色理论,分析了4个I级影响因素和12个Ⅱ级影响因素对耐磨铸铁现场使用寿命的综合影响,通过大量计算得到了这些影响因素的综合影响及其排序.计算结果表明,在这些Ⅰ级影响因素中,材料性质对使用寿命影响最大,现场运行条件影响最小,而所输送介质特性和泵几何设计参数分别介于它们之间;在Ⅱ级影响因素中,碳化物硬度对使用寿命影响最大,泵的流量影响最小,而其它影响因素分别介于它们之间.

磷是控制水体富营养化最关键的营养物质,在外源磷得到控制之后,内源磷通过各种复杂过程再次进入水体,成为水体富营养化的主要磷污染源.目前,国内外对底泥磷的相关研究已非常多,但缺乏系统的整理和总结.从底泥磷的形态和影响其释放的环境因素2个方面进行了系统总结,介绍了底泥磷的主要形态、释放机制,分析了环境因素对于底泥磷释放的影响.

目前,影响足球产业健康发展的制约因素有:足球产业核心产品质量低下,产业价值难以认同;足球文化建设与传播有待完善;足球产业缺乏核心竞争力.指出足球产业经营者的经营观念、经营策略、产业主体者的价值观等"人"的思想因素是这种现象产生的本质原因.并提出足球产业发展的对策.

目的:探讨重症监护病房(ICU)急性呼吸窘迫综合征(ARDS)的发生及28 d死亡的危险因素.方法采用多中心前瞻性队列研究方法,入选2009年7月至2014年3月在北京地区5家三级甲等医院ICU住院的脓毒症、感染性休克、创伤、肺炎、误吸、大量输血、菌血症、肺挫伤患者.各中心研究人员按照统一的病例报告表格记录患者24 h内人口学、既往史、全身状况、原发病、病情严重程度等.根据入ICU当日诊断分为ARDS组和重症对照组.采用单因素分析、多因素logistic回归、多因素COX回归方法分析ARDS发生及预后的危险因素,应用Kaplan-Meier方法绘制两组患者28 d生存曲线.结果入选343例患者中,ARDS组163例中失访2例,死亡49例;重症对照组180例中失访1例,死亡34例;ARDS组28 d病死率明显高于重症对照组〔30.43%(49/161)比18.99%(34/179),χ2=6.013,P=0.014〕.多因素logistic回归分析显示:误吸〔优势比(OR)=6.390,95%可信区间(95%CI)=2.046~19.953,P=0.001〕、有酗酒史(OR=4.854,95%CI=1.730~13.617,P=0.003)、脓毒症(OR=2.859,95%CI=1.507~5.425,P=0.001)、肺炎(OR=2.822,95%CI=1.640~4.855,P<0.001)、急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分系统Ⅱ(APACHEⅡ)评分(OR=1.050,95%CI=1.007~1.094,P=0.022)能够增加ARDS发生的风险;重症患者一旦呼吸频率>30次/min(OR=3.305,95%CI=1.910~5.721,P<0.001)、心率>100次/min(OR=2.101,95%CI=1.048~4.213,P=0.037)高度提示ARDS的发生;ARDS患者血肌酐>176.8μmol/L的比例较重症患者低(OR=0.387,95%CI=0.205~0.733, P=0.004).多因素COX回归分析显示:高龄和感染性休克能够增加ARDS患者28 d死亡的风险〔年龄:相对危险度(HR)=1.040,95%CI=1.018~1.064,P<0.001;感染性休克:HR=3.209,95%CI=1.676~6.146, P<0.001〕.Kaplan-Meier生?